Albion Analytics: Making it 12 unbeaten at home in the Premier League

Albion's win at home to Nottingham Forest extended their impressive unbeaten home run in the Premier League to 12 games.

In all competitions this season, Roberto De Zerbi’s side have played 17 home games: 9 wins, 6 draws, and only 2 defeats, which came in late August (West Ham, in the Premier League) and late September (AEK Athens, in the Europa League).

Though they have never won more than two consecutive games in their 12 match unbeaten Premier League run, it is only a streak that Liverpool and Manchester City (14 home games, current records) have bettered this season. Albion have not lost consecutive home games since late 2022, against Aston Villa (1-2) and Arsenal (1-3), but even those were separated by the World Cup.

The significance of this can be measured in two ways. Firstly, against other Premier League clubs. Since Albion’s top-flight debut season in 2017/18, there have been 12 instances of longer home unbeaten runs within a season, but all of those are by ‘big six’ clubs: Liverpool have five (unbeaten at home, 19 games, in 2017-18, 2018-19, 2019-20, 2021-22 and currently 14 home games without defeat), Manchester City three (15 games in 2017-18, 13 in 2020-21 and also currently 14 games). United have twice managed longer streaks, Tottenham Hotspur and Arsenal once each.

Then, compared to Brighton’s history. 2017/18 was a fantastic home season, where Brighton only lost four Premier League games at the Amex and took 29 of their 40 points from home matches. They had the eighth-best home form and put together a run of six home league games unbeaten, while they won four and lost just one of their final seven games at the Amex, culminating in an iconic 1-0 win over Jose Mourinho’s Manchester United to confirm survival.

Between 2018/19 and 2022/23, Albion never went more than five home league games without defeat, and consistently struggled for home points. In-fact, their home form got progressively worse for three straight seasons after 2017-18 (23 points in 2018-19; 22 points in 2019-20; 21 points in 2020-21). Last season (34) was the first time they accrued more than 30 home points in a Premier League season, and based on their current points-per-game (1.93, 27 points from 14 games) are on track to have their best-ever home season in the division — 36 points is the projected return.

It is Albion’s best home run, in terms of avoiding league defeats, since their Championship promotion season in 2016/17, where they went 14 games unbeaten between mid-September and late February.

As daunting as the remaining Amex fixture list looks, with Albion to host Manchester City, Arsenal, Chelsea, Aston Villa and Manchester United — four of those, barring Chelsea, are above Brighton in the table — it is worth remembering that Albion tend to end the season well at home. In addition to the aforementioned 2017/18, they won three and drew two of their final five home gams of 2020-21, including a memorable 3-2 comeback win over City. Last season, they only lost one of their final eight home games to secure European football.

It has not all been plain sailing this season at the Amex. “We have been unlucky because five draws (at home), for example Sheffield United, Burnley, Fulham and Wolverhampton, we deserved to win all of the games,“ said De Zerbi after the 0-0 draw at home to Wolves, and he echoed those comments after the 1-1 draw at home to Everton in February.

Albion are very much in a five-team fight for a top-seven finish, with four points separating West Ham (currently in seventh) and Chelsea (in 11th). Importantly, they have taken eight points from losing positions at home this season, with headed goals to salvage late draws against Burnley and Everton (both 1-1) and second-half turnarounds against Bournemouth (3-1) and Brentford (2-1).

Brighton’s rearranged home game against City means they will go almost a month between Premier League games by the time they host Arsenal in early April, but it gives a chance to extend the record and finish the season with a flourish.