Albion have ten Premier League games left in 2023-24: here’s what the numbers say about the quality of their opposition, how they’ve historically finished seasons, and the club records they could set.
Head coach Roberto De Zerbi called it “the most important season in our career” back in August, particularly because of Albion’s Europa League participation and the chance to build on a record-breaking Premier League campaign in 2022-23. The Seagulls bowed out of the FA Cup in late February (1-0 loss away to Wolves) and exited the Europa League in the quarter-finals, beaten 4-1 on aggregate by AS Roma.
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The silver lining is it leaves them with only Premier League games to play, a return to a one-game-a-week schedule. That is even more important considering Albion’s run-in: they have the hardest fixtures in the league, when taking the average opponent quality using Opta’s power rankings.
Looking at the table, they still have to play five of the top six, though four of those games are at home — where Albion have not lost in the Premier League since August. They can, of course, play a significant role in what is shaping up to be the most exciting Premier League title race in years.
There is the opportunity to complete a double over four opponents (Brentford, Bournemouth, Newcastle and Manchester United, who Albion have already beaten this season), with Albion already victorious home and away against Nottingham Forest. They are unable to eclipse last season, where they did the double over six different teams, but can better 2018-19 through to 2021-22, where Brighton won home and away against two opponents every season.
How Brighton’s 2023-24 start (15 games) ranks in club Premier League history:
— Albion Analytics (@AlbionAnalytics) December 9, 2023
Most goals scored (32) and conceded (27)
Most points won at home (15/possible 24)
Second-most wins (7), points (25) and second-highest position (7th)
Only more wins and points last season. 🇮🇹#BHAFC pic.twitter.com/P25woTL99n
It is not a simple science but, in the reverse fixtures against Albion’s final ten opponents, they won four, drew four and lost twice. Repeat those results and they will collect 14 points, finishing on 56. Such is the volatility of the European chase, that in Albion's time in the Premier League (six full seasons, this is their seventh) that would land them anywhere from seventh or eighth in four of the six seasons, but tenth and 11th in the others.
Opta currently predict Albion as finishing eighth, though there are decimal percentages between them, West Ham, Wolves and Newcastle, all scrapping for seventh place — West Ham (44) are two points clear of Albion (42) but have played a game more, while Wolves (41) and Newcastle (40) are within one win of De Zerbi’s side.
Opta measure Brighton’s run-in as statistically the hardest in the league (avg opponent difficulty).
— Albion Analytics (@AlbionAnalytics) March 26, 2024
They predict:
18.9% chance of top 7 finish
35.7% chance of top 8 finish
54.8% chance of top 9 finish
73.6% chance of top-half finish
Time to finish with a flourish. 🔵#BHAFC pic.twitter.com/IDGi7fkRO8
Albion ought to be motivated by how they have finished recent seasons. They have outscored opponents in their final ten games every season since 2019-20, and finished with a higher points-per-game average in the final ten games than the first 28 in three of those four campaigns. In each of the last two seasons, they have won five out of ten games, taking 16 points in 2022-23 and 18 in 2021-22.
Finish in form like that this season and more club records will tumble.
Brighton need 20 points to match last season’s club-record points total (62) — they are currently on track, in terms of points-per-game, for 54 points. A finish of that quality would require near perfection (six wins, two draws, two defeats, for instance), but is not out of question given the ceiling of performances under De Zerbi.
| Pos | Team | Pld | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
10
|
BOU
|
34 | -11 | 45 |
|
11
|
Albion
|
33 | -2 | 44 |
|
12
|
WOL
|
34 | -8 | 43 |
Their 72 goals in 2022-23 is another club record, and more than they netted combined in the first two Premier League seasons (69: 35 in 2018-19, 34 in 2017-18). They scored 20 in their final ten league games last season, scoring in every match. Big wins against Wolves (6-0), Arsenal (3-0) and Southampton (3-1) ensured European qualification.
De Zerbi is targeting that again with a league finish, given qualification via domestic and European cups is now unattainable. A top-eight finish, while not guaranteed, can be expected to return some form of European football for 2024-25 (either Europa League or Conference League), given the knock-on effects of the expanded Champions League.