Albion Analytics: How good has Albion's start been?

Albion kicked off their campaign in similar fashion to last season, winning three and drawing one of their first four, conceding just once in that time.

Very few sides are capable of maintaining that sort of form across a full season and the points return has dropped since, with Brighton taking five points from a possible 18.

This mixed bag of results and change in head coach poses the fair question: How good has Brighton’s start been?

It is important to note that the Albion are generally strong starters. In four of their five full Premier League seasons, Brighton have recorded a higher points per game average than what they would end the season with — the exception being the 2019-20 season.

Should they continue their current form all season long (1.5 points per game) they would end the season with 57 points, a club record by six. Last season that tally would have been enough to finish in seventh place and earn European football.

Ultimately opposition quality is a significant factor to consider with the difficulty of a start. Using the final position of each team in the season prior (and assigning 18, 19 and 20 to the Championship title winners, runners-up and play-off winners) we can get a rough indication of team quality — this season Brighton’s first ten opponents averaged a finish position of 10.6, slightly tougher than last season (11.5) but marginally easier than the 2020/21 and 2019/20 seasons (9.9 and 10.1).

From the perspective of underlying metrics it suggests Brighton have made a sustainably good start and could be realistically doing even better. It is the first time after ten games that Brighton have boasted a positive goal difference (+3) and they are one of only three non ‘big-six’ sides to have one this season (alongside Newcastle and Brentford).

Expected goal difference (xGD) is measured by subtracting Expected Goals generated versus conceded — the same mathematics as with goal difference. Comparing those numbers, Brighton have generated scoring chances worth around eight goals more than their opponents, another club record at this stage of a Premier League season.

Furthermore, despite averaging the majority of possession, Brighton have outperformed opponents (collectively) in defensive metrics such as tackles (167 versus 146) and press success rate — the proportion of pressures leading to a turnover inside five seconds (32.1% versus 29.6%).

Albion’s defensive quality has long been a cornerstone of their success. This season they rank joint-third for the fewest shots conceded (92, tied with Liverpool) and third for xG conceded (11), whilst only Manchester City (22) have faced fewer shots on target than Brighton (28).

And when opponents have hit the target, Robert Sanchez has largely been in inspired form, with his saves preventing close to four goals more than the average goalkeeper would concede, based on post-shot xG data.

Stylistically, Brighton rank sixth this season for total open-play sequences of ten or more passes, completing 130. 37 of these have led to a shot or touch in the opposition box, the third most behind Liverpool and Manchester City — and a number surely only set to grow exponentially under Roberto De Zerbi.

Out of possession they have continued to press high, the joint-fifth-most intense team when looking at the fewest number of passes they allow opponents before making a defensive action (11.9). Albion’s 89 high turnovers are the sixth-most in the league but notably only two sides (Newcastle - 19, and Leicester - 18) have turned more into shots than Brighton (17).

There are four more fixtures for Brighton before the World Cup: Manchester City away, Chelsea at home, Wolves away and Aston Villa at home.