Albion Analytics: What can we expect this season?

Albion Analytics take a closer look at how they think Albion might fare this coming campaign.

By Liam Tharme • 20 July 2022

By Paul Hazlewood
Albion rounded off the 2021/22 campaign with a 3-1 home win over West Ham.

Albion go into a club-record sixth consecutive top-flight campaign, having set new club Premier League records last season for points (51) and highest finish position (9th).

Collectively, the Premier League and Sky Sports have highlighted key tactical trends from last season, with Brighton matching some trends, but also going against the grain at times too.

Rise in goalscoring

Across the Premier League, 1,071 goals were scored, only one shy of the 2018/19 record tally (for a 38-game season), and Brighton netted a club-best number of goals (42) and took more shots (483) than ever before in a Premier League season, outshooting opponents (476) in the process.

Albion’s 14 different goal-scorers is their second widest spread in the past five seasons, only eclipsed by 15 in the 2020/21 Premier League season. Brighton scored at least twice in the league on 12 different occasions, twice more than in each of the last two seasons (10).

Alexis Mac Allister was the only Albion player to score a brace, netting Brighton’s opener and eventual match-winner in the 3-2 win at Everton. Sky Sports’ power rankings rated this as among the top 20 best individual performances in the Premier League last season. Of Brighton players to score multiple goals in the past two seasons, Mac Allister improved his 2020/21 total in 2021/22 by four goals, the most of any Albion player (Trossard +3, Welbeck +2, Maupay and Gross matched their totals).

Rise in home wins

The home win rate rose from 38% to 43% across the league, with away wins dropping from 40% to 34%, and draws staying the same. But Albion bucked this trend, taking their most away points in a Premier League season ever (29), and ranked fifth in the away league table, winning a club-record seven on the road (37% away win rate, and losing just 21%, about half the league average).

Notably, every Premier League season Brighton have broken their away points record, but it will require something special to continue that run next season.

Home goals rose to 1.51 per game last season, while Brighton conceded just 1.1 each match on their travels, but perhaps the best stat was that Brighton finished the season unbeaten in their hyper-turq away kit, and avoided defeat in London all season too!

Late goals

If they bucked the trend for home wins, Albion were the trend for late goals. Across the Premier League, there were 100 home goals scored in the 80th minute and beyond, an increase of 26 from the previous campaign.

The Seagulls outscored opponents 14-8 in the final 15 minutes of games, their most goals scored and fewest conceded when compared to the previous four seasons, and only the second time (after 2019/20, +3) when they have outscored opponents. Potter’s side boasted a 14% conversion rate in the final 15 minutes of games, and marginally outperformed their xG of 12.4, showing an ability to perform when it really counted.

Brighton scored late goals all season and were the comeback kings – their quickfire goals at Burnley on the opening day, to turn the game on its head, came in the 73rd and 78th minutes. Against West Ham on matchday 38, Pascal Gross gave Brighton the lead in the 80th minute, before Danny Welbeck sealed all three points with a 92nd minute header, which was Brighton’s last shot of the season.

Set piece threats

Corners were responsible for 13.6% of goals last season in the Premier League, which was the second highest proportion in the decade. Albion’s Pascal Gross took the crown for the most accurate corner taker in the league, with over 41% of his deliveries finding a teammate, successfully delivering 40 corners from just 96 deliveries.

Brighton’s number 13 enters his sixth season in the Premier League this August, having signed a new contract, and will look to continue his record of at least six goal involvements in every Premier League campaign to date.

Brighton’s Shane Duffy also ranked among the top shooters from corners, with only five players bettering his 19 attempts from such situations. The Irishman and German combined for the opening (and eventually winning) goal against Watford. Brighton’s 130 set piece shots across the 21/22 season was their joint-most (with 2019/20) since Graham Potter’s arrival.