Albion Analytics: FPL picks

To help you out in the forthcoming season, Albion Analytics picked out five Albion players who should be in with a shout of making your side.

Leandro Trossard (132) scored the most FPL points of any Brighton player last season, with the Belgian recording the most non-penalty goal involvements (10) of any Seagull. Such an output was not unexpected either, as Trossard clocked a combined 9.4 non-penalty Expected Goals and assists. Such a quality output will not come cheap, though, with the winger joint with Neal Maupay in being the most costly Albion asset (both £6.5m). Trossard earned himself 15 bonus points across last season, among the top 40 players in the league in this metric and joint-second among Albion players. No Brighton player appeared in the official FPL ‘Kings of the Week’ team (top points scorers that week) more than Trossard last season.

Brighton’s number 11 had a tremendous second half of the season too; since the start of 2021, he boasts Brighton best numbers for goals plus assists (8) and total involvement in possessions leading to Expected Goals (37.6%). On average, in 2021, Trossard has been involved in a Brighton goal (Premier League only) every 212 minutes.

Club captain Lewis Dunk is undoubtedly a surety for most Albion fans, but for those who need convincing, allow the numbers to do it for you. Only the aforementioned Leandro Trossard could better Dunk’s 130 points for Brighton last season, and the Englishman ranked inside the top 10 defenders in the league for points scored as well as bonus points (17) earned – a bonus points total which was the best of any Albion player last season. Ageing like a fine wine, Dunk has improved his FPL points total in each of the last three seasons. 

Since his Premier League debut in August 2017, Dunk has netted the most goals (11) of any defender, heading home on seven occasions. In all Premier League seasons, Brighton’s clean sheet rate (which is worth four points) when Dunk plays is 26%, when he does not play, the number plummets to 11%. 

Speaking of clean sheets, it would be remiss to not mention Robert Sanchez. The shot-stopper was one of just four Premier League goalkeepers to concede no more than one goal per game last season (excluding own goals), and the Spaniard was the only U23 in that list. It seems surprising then that Sanchez will set you back just £4.5m, with he and Palace’s Vicente Guiata the two cheapest goalkeepers last season to top a ton of points. What is unsurprising, is that – at the time of writing – Sanchez (27.1%) is the second most owned goalkeeper in fantasy sides (behind Emiliano Martinez – 39.6%) and the most-owned Albion player.

StatsBomb data had it than Sanchez prevented close to 5 additional goals last season with his saves, and whilst his ball-playing ability is not to be understated (attempted the most passes per game – 34 – of any GK in the league last season), FPL rewards goalkeepers primarily for the goals they keep out. Sanchez boasted a sublime 37% clean sheet rate, and a quick glance at the numbers behind the opening set of fixtures enhances the value of including Albion’s number one. Whilst last season’s data is not a guarantee of this season’s performances, it still has use. Five of Brighton’s first 8 opponents created less than 1xG (penalties excluded) on average per game last season – Liverpool are the only other side to face as many sides performing below this attacking threshold, thus it would be a well educated bet to have Robert Sanchez between your fantasy sticks. 

Albion’s leading non-penalty goalscorer last season, Danny Welbeck, could prove to be an excellent gamble, with Lewis Dunk (3.9) and Leandro Trossard (3.8) the only Brighton players to record better FPL points per match totals than Danny (3.7) last season. 

FPL consider penalties won (that are then scored) as assists, with Welbeck totalling ten attacking returns (goals plus assists) in just 19 starts last campaign. Even the official FPL scout considers the Englishman to be a solid outside bet, pointing to Welbeck’s average of 85 minutes per big chance recorded, a more efficient return than Neal Maupay’s 109 minutes, though that total is still good.

And finally, Tariq Lamptey could be set for his full breakout season. The youngster ranked inside the top eight Brighton players last season for FPL points per match (3.2), and given the defensive weaknesses of Brighton’s opponents – five of the first eight sides the Seagulls face conceded over 1.3 non-penalty xG per game last season – he could certainly wreak havoc in the opening game-weeks; he is another Brighton FPL scout pick, and could be a gold mine for points if Brighton can continue their clean sheet keeping.

A frequent winner of fouls (2.86 per 90 last season, over one foul more than the next best Albion player), which are assist-creditable (3 points), and Lamptey ranks inside the top 10% of top five league full-backs over the past year for progressive carries/dribbles, touches in the opposition box, progressive passes received and shot-creating actions – in summary, the boy gets forward, and he causes defences problems.