Analysis: Battle To Beat The Drop

With just 11 league matches remaining, and Brighton & Hove Albion fighting to secure their place in England’s top flight for next season, data analysts Gracenote Sports took an in-depth look into the Premier League relegation battle.

Just five points separate AFC Bournemouth in tenth position and Southampton, who currently sit in the final relegation spot with 26 points, in what can only be seen as one of the tightest battles to avoid the drop in Premier League history.

The Seagulls head into Saturday’s meeting against Swansea City one point and two places ahead of the Welsh outfit, after Carlos Carvalhal arrived at the Liberty Stadium and turned their recent fortunes around.

But with supporters across the country wondering how many points will be required to secure a spot on next season’s Premier League, Gracenote Sports researched points totals from years gone by to predict how it may finish up.

The idea of reaching 40 points to secure safety is well known in the Premier League, but on only four occasions over the past 22 years have teams needed to reach 40 points or more to stay up.

In fact, an average total of 36.6 points have been needed to remain in the Premier League since the division turned into a 20-team league back in 1995.

The lowest collection of points needed to guarantee safety [31] came back in 2011 when 18th-placed Burnley went down with 30 points - whereas the highest needed was 43 in 2003, when West Ham United were relegated with 42 points.

Simon Gleave, head of analysis at Gracenote Sports, revealed the following findings, “At this stage, it is certain that 40 points will be enough to stay up and that a team getting 34 points will be relegated. 38 points will more than likely be enough.”