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Ferret's First Leg Tips

7 May 2014

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So the play-offs became a reality - although we had to sweat a little! Derby County are our opponents in the semi-finals and they come to the Amex on Thursday night for the first leg.  
Sky Bet the official sponsors of the Football League - make Albion their 7/5 favourites to take a lead back to the iPro Stadium on Sunday. The Rams are 19/10 and the draw is 23/10.  As in a lot of games this season, Sky Bet's odds compilers can be congratulated for getting the outrights spot on - no real value on any of the options. To qualify from the tie and reach the Wembley final, the Seagulls are quoted at 6/5, with Derby 8/13 odds-on.
The first slice of value is a slightly negative bet, but it does offer us something in the way of insurance. A draw/draw in the half-time/full-time category is 4/1 and that is overpriced by half-a-point.
In the goalscoring heat, David Lopez remains 10/1 and that is a bet to strike once the teams are released. If Spanish Dave starts then place the bet. However, a runner with a more likely chance of starting is Inigo Calderon (25/1).
Finally, lets end on a positive wager. Albion to win to nil is 3/1 and this represents a fair shout.  Taking a 1-0 lead (courtesy of Calderon) to Pride Park would tee up the competition nicely for Sunday.
Good luck and happy punting!

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