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Ferret's Tips: Birmingham Away

16 August 2013

With Andrea Orlandi a non-runner (bets refunded) last weekend, I hope some of you were on second choice Leo Ulloa (5/1), who duly landed the first goalscorer odds for us for the second time this season.

Ulloa's odds are dropping however. Against Leeds he was 7/1, against Derby at home he was 5/1 and now on Saturday against Birmingham he is 5/1 - although the same price as for Derby.

The fact that Brighton are away from home reduces his chances of landing the odds so he should be a longer price. Clearly Sky Bet have woken up to our Argentinian goal-getter and as a result we will need to be looking elsewhere this weekend.

Kemy Agustien is probably the best value at 22/1. Although more of an 'assister' than a 'netter', he will notch a few this season and - at 22/1 - this weekend would be an ideal time to start!

In the match outright odds, Albion are marginally favoured at 7/5, with Birmingham 15/8 and the Draw 23/10.  Sky Bet have probably got those odds about right as I do fancy the Seagulls to get some points on the board against the Blues.

I don't foresee a goalfest however, and money buyers could be interested in the 2/7 for 'under 3.5 goals', but I appreciate that those odds are unbackable for most normal punters.  

A bit more acceptable is the half-time draw (11/10) but value elsewhere is thin on the ground and I would generally advise keeping your powder dry for this match - other than the aforementioned Agustien wager. 

Good luck and happy punting!

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