Albion Analytics: One year of Roberto De Zerbi

Main Club Sponsor

TICKETS

SHOP

Albion's numbers under Roberto De Zerbi make for some phenomenal reading.

Liam Tharme

Albion Analytics

2023-09-18T06:00:00Z

Roberto De Zerbi has a win rate of 52.2% as Albion boss.

The earth has now completed one full lap of the sun with Roberto de Zerbi as Albion's head coach — and his team are shining under him.

He inherited a talented squad whom made a strong league start in 2022/23, prior to Graham Potter’s departure, but it was De Zerbi who led them to a highest-ever finish (6th) in club history, smashing club records for goals (72), wins (18) and points (62), resulting in this season being their debut campaign in European football.

In fact, among permanent managers/head coaches in club history, only Peter Taylor (55.2%, in charge for 34 games between October 2001 and May 2002), has a better win rate than De Zerbi’s 52.2%. An important caveat, of course, is that De Zerbi has achieved that in the Premier League, Taylor was in the third division (now League One).

Of the 12 Italian managers/head coaches who have overseen ten-plus Premier League games, De Zerbi ranks sixth on the list for points per game average (1.65), though three of the five to better him have also won a Premier League title. His average is better than Claudio Ranieri and Roberto Di Matteo.

Perhaps the best statistic to show Brighton’s evolution and its exponentiality under De Zerbi is their ELO rating — a metric rooted in Chess which is “an estimation of (a team’s) strength based on past results allowing predictions for the future.”

When Potter left Brighton in September 2022, Brighton were the 22nd ranked team in Europe, with Albion rising eight places to 14th by De Zerbi’s one-year anniversary.

Ultimately, De Zerbi’s success has been as significant because of the style it has been achieved with. Since his arrival in the Premier League, Brighton rank second for possession average (62.1%), only behind Manchester City, who are also the only team to have more open-play sequences of nine-plus passes than De Zerbi’s side.

The Seagulls rank third, behind Arsenal and City, for touches in the opposition box, big chances (116) as well as for goals (76 — Arsenal have 82 and City 85). Brighton’s attacking output has been rightly lauded under the Italian, with Brighton having the most shots (624) and shots on target (244) of any Premier League team during his tenure.

It is impressive that Brighton are able to put up such quality attacking numbers with so much variety. In all competitions under De Zerbi, Brighton have had six players score eight-plus goals: Evan Ferguson (13), Kaoru Mitoma and Solly March (both 11), Pascal Gross (9), Danny Welbeck and Alexis Mac Allister (both 8). Additionally, Gross, March, Mitoma and Pervis Estupinan have all recorded at least eight assists.

"It's my idea of football, my idea of life. You can't change my idea," said De Zerbi in February. Albion and De Zerbi are becoming increasingly one and the same. “The DNA of the play is myself, my character, my history, my family, what I was like as a player. I keep myself inside of my work,” De Zerbi told Andy Naylor of The Athletic this month.

That stands out even in the biggest games. Against ‘Big Six’ opponents — Manchester United, City, Liverpool, Arsenal, Tottenham and Chelsea — Brighton have stood out. De Zerbi’s first win, in fact, was at home to Chelsea.

In 12 Premier League meetings against those opponents, Albion have 6 wins, 2 draws and just 4 losses, taking 20 points from those matches, the most of any non ‘Big Six’ side. They have the most goals (24) and are the only side to average a majority share of possession against those opponents (55.1%).

Perhaps the most impressive part of De Zerbi’s tenure has been the centrality of youth and academy graduates. Brighton ranked in the top 10 sides in Europe’s top-five leagues last season for minutes given to U21 players (4,875) and only Southampton had more in the Premier League. De Zerbi has given 10 players their Premier League debut while aged 23 or younger, and since the start of 2022-23, 15 of the 27 Premier League goals scored by teenagers have been from Brighton players: Ferguson (10), Julio Enciso (4), Facundo Buonanotte (1).