Albion Analytics: Joao Pedro

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The forward's numbers make for some reading.

Liam Tharme

Albion Analytics

2023-06-14T06:00:00Z

Joao Pedro officially joined Albion when the transfer window opened on Wednesday.

Albion confirmed the signing of 21-year-old Joao Pedro ahead of the 2023-24 season.

The former Watford winger spent four years in Hertfordshire, having joined aged 18 from Fluminense in his native Brazil, a similar route into the Premier League which Richarlison had taken a few seasons before.

The transfer adds much needed reinforcement in the wings and forward line for Brighton. Joao Pedro could feasibly play on either flank, as a number ten or lead the line in Roberto De Zerbi’s preferred 4-2-3-1 formation.

As per Transfermarkt, 67 of the Brazilian’s 109 Watford appearances have been as a centre forward, though former academy coach Eduardo Olivera stresses “when he plays up front, he’s not someone who likes to stay fixed in the area. He could drift to the flanks or drop off in search of the ball." He scored goals with his left-foot, right-foot and head last season, converting one-touch finishes from crosses, scoring a penalty and capping counter-attacks — the Brazilian is a serious all-rounder.

Albion technical director David Weir has said he will “complement our existing forward line very well." Joao Pedro is only 21, born in 2001, just over a month older than Albion central midfielder Moises Caicedo, but has already amassed over 100 domestic appearances, across three different leagues (Premier League, Brazilian Serie A, English Championship) and captained Watford nine times this Championship season.

Not only does Joao Pedro provide the end product — Watford’s top league scorer with 11 goals last season, including four match-winners and six game-opening goals — but he was essential to the function of their attack. They had a higher win rate (34.3% vs 30%), points per game (1.4 vs 1.2) and possession average (53.9% vs 48.4%) in Championship games when Joao Pedro played versus when he did not last season.

An underrated part of Joao Pedro’s game is his consistency. He won a foul in all bar two of his 35 Championship appearances last season. In 23 of those games he had multiple shots and registered at least three shot-creating actions. Without the ball, there were 14 games where he made a minimum of three tackles plus interceptions, and in eight separate matches he attempted at least ten dribbles.

Ball carrying is Joao Pedro’s super-strength. He had the third-most dribbles (253) in the entire league last season, the top-ranking U23 in that metric, also ranking in the top ten for progressive carries (123) and having the fifth-most take-ons leading to shots (16). He led Watford players in all those metrics and, as per StatsBomb data, his 14 nutmegs were the second-most in the Championship behind Patrick Roberts (17).

When comparing Joao Pedro U23s in the Championship, it is significant that he ranks in the top ten in multiple key attacking metrics: through balls, dribbles, shots, big chances created, goals, chance-creating carries and touches in the opposition box. No wonder David Weir described him as a “brilliant young talent, technically very good, quick and with an eye for goal.”

Joao Pedro is far from the finished article, and can be reasonably expected to succeed in a Brighton team that has seen numerous young talents succeed — 11 of the 20 goals by teenagers in the Premier League last season were netted by Albion players.